One Nation senator Malcolm Roberts and former Wagga councillor Paul Funnell officially launched a One Nation branch in the Riverina last year and believe the seat is winnable. Photo: Jarryd Rowley.
Australia’s doyen of elections, Antony Green, has listed the Riverina as one of 25 seats that One Nation will target as ‘winnable’ at the next federal election.
A recent Roy Morgan poll put support for Pauline Hanson’s party at 25 per cent nationwide, behind only Labor on 30.5 per cent but comfortably ahead of the Liberal Party on 18 per cent and the Nationals on 2.5 per cent.
“If come the next election, One Nation polls 25 per cent, it will be sweeping up seats all across rural and regional Australia. And most of those seats are held by the National and Liberal Parties,” Mr Green said on his blog.
The veteran ABC analyst listed Riverina as one of the One Nation “target” seats it believed would be “winnable” because the party came third there at the 2025 election, when it’s nationwide support was less than half of what it is now.
Mr Green said the party picked up around 20 per cent of the vote after preferences in the ‘top three’ Riverina count, with the Nationals getting 50 per cent and Labor 30 per cent.
The Riverina’s neighbouring seat of Hume, held by Liberal leadership aspirant Angus Taylor, is also listed as a target seat due to One Nation’s high vote in 2025.
The challenge for One Nation in both seats is Labor’s policy of putting the party last on its how-to-vote cards. This means that even if it finishes second or first in primary votes, Labor preferences could help the Coalition retain the seats.
One Nation launched its first branch in the Riverina late last year, when Region asked the party if it truly believed it could win it.
“One Nation contests every election with the aim to win seats. Ultimately, we consider voters in the region faced with a terrible Labor government and weak Coalition opposition could throw their support behind One Nation and our sensible policies,” a spokesman said.
“Australians are very clearly seeing One Nation as an alternative, particularly those seeking an end to net zero policies supported by the Nationals.”
The spokesperson said membership has increased by 55 per cent in regional areas since the last election.
At present, former Nationals leader and former deputy prime minister Michael McCormack holds Riverina with a 12 per cent margin.
He was asked about the One Nation polling surge on Sky News last week.
Mr McCormack said it needed to be taken seriously, but many people expressing support for the party were actually lodging a protest and responding to pollsters’ prompts.
“It think this is a bit of aberration, I truly do,” he said.
Riverina One Nation spokesman Paul Funnell said the Coalition’s support for Labor hate speech laws and net zero wasn’t an aberration, and it’s the reason conservatives are flocking towards his party.
“If he [McCormack] wanted to rebuild trust with regional Australians, calling other parties names on Sky probably isn’t the masterstroke he thinks it is. Maybe addressing his own record would be a better start,” he said.
The next federal election must be held before June 2028.
