One Nation candidate David Farley in Griffith with popular local nonagenarian couple John and Barbara Dickson. Photo: David Farley Facebook.
A new poll of the Farrer electorate released on Tuesday (21 April) has by-election frontrunners One Nation’s David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe neck-and-neck on the primary vote, with Pauline Hanson’s party predicted to narrowly win the seat after preferences.
The survey results come as the Liberal Party confirmed it will join its Coalition partner in recommending its voters put Mr Farley ahead of Ms Milthorpe on its how-to-vote card.
A uComms poll of 1116 respondents, conducted on 9 and 10 April and published by The Conversation, had Mr Farley leading Ms Milthorpe 31 per cent to 30 per cent. After preferences, Mr Farley is projected to win 53 per cent to 47 per cent.
Raissa Butkowski of the Liberal Party, which has held the seat comfortably for 25 years, is on 16 per cent of the primary vote, while the Nationals’ Brad Robertson sits on 7 per cent.
The Milthorpe camp are encouraged by the new poll, which shows her support has climbed seven per cent since the only other by-election survey, commissioned by the Australia Institute in early March. That survey, which only reported primary votes, had Mr Farley leading Ms Milthorpe 29 per cent to 23 per cent.
The latest uComms poll, commissioned by Ms Milthorpe, revealed a stark gender divide between the two frontrunners. Among women, Ms Milthorpe leads Mr Farley 37 per cent to 25 per cent, while among men, the One Nation candidate leads 38 per cent to 23 per cent.
By age, the two candidates are near level among voters under 34 and over 65, but Mr Farley holds an advantage among those aged 35 to 64.
With One Nation marginally ahead, progressive lobby group GetUp has entered the race and invested $600,000 on an advertising campaign to stop them from winning.
The tight race underscores the importance of preference flows, which are likely to decide the contest. At an election forum on Monday, the National Party and Family First candidates confirmed they would recommend preferencing One Nation ahead of Ms Milthorpe on their how-to-vote cards. Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski would not reveal her position that night, but a how-to-vote card image published on her website the following day showed she will recommend putting Mr Farley at number four, ahead of Ms Milthorpe at number nine.
At the Griffith forum, both Mr Farley and Ms Milthorpe said they would push for a royal commission into water if elected.
“I’m calling for a royal commission, because we know inquiries have been done and they haven’t done anything,” Ms Milthorpe said.
Michelle Milthorpe with local solicitor Olivia Harris in Griffith. Photo: Oliver Jacques.
Mr Farley said increased buybacks of irrigation water would have impacts beyond the farm gate.
“There’s a stark reality — water is no longer just a problem in the paddocks in Farrer, it’s a problem in the supermarkets in Sydney and it’s starting to become a problem for our national security,” he said.
However, the Nationals and Liberal candidates opposed the idea of a royal commission, warning any inquiry under the Albanese Government would further disadvantage Basin communities.
“It’s a double-edged sword because they’re going to kill our farmers and take more water off us. Don’t call for a royal commission while they’re in government; wait until you have the right government … the terms of reference will be controlled by Albo – we don’t like that guy,” Mr Robertson said.
At the end of the night, all participants agreed it was disappointing the Labor Party did not field a candidate, with Mr Robertson saying it would have received zero per cent of the vote.
“There is a hatred to what Labor is doing to this country and we need to fight them,” he said.
The Farrer by-election will take place on Saturday 9 May. Early voting commences Tuesday 28 April. Check out the Australian Electoral Commission website for details on where to vote.
