Sussan Ley debates opponents before the 2025 Farrer election, including Michelle Milthorpe (second from right), Glen Hyde, David O’Reilly and Tanya Hagraves at a Griffith forum. Photo: Oliver Jacques.
An independent is now the firm favourite with bookmakers to win an upcoming by-election in the federal seat of Farrer. But the question remains, which one?
On Friday (27 February), recently deposed Liberal leader Sussan Ley resigned from Federal Parliament, confirming that residents in Griffith, Albury and surrounding towns will go to the polls to elect her replacement. A date has not been set but it’s expected to be before June.
Who will and won’t run for Farrer?
So far, only two candidates have confirmed they are definitely running for the seat – Jindera teacher Michelle Milthorpe as an independent and Christian school worker Rebecca Scriven representing the Family First Party.
But the Liberals, Nationals and One Nation have all stated they intend to contest the seat and are each searching for a candidate.
Independent MP Helen Dalton, who represents the western half of the seat at state level, said she was considering resigning from NSW Parliament to have a tilt at the federal Farrer seat. One Nation has asked her to run its banner. The Pauline Hanson-led party has also approached Narrandera businessman David Farley along with several others, but no decision has been made.
Albury state MP Justin Clancy was also considering quitting State Parliament to be the Liberal Party candidate but on Friday confirmed he would not run. Griffith-based winery boss Darren De Bortoli has also said he was approached by multiple parties but declined all offers.
The Greens and the Gerard Rennick People First will also be running while the Labor Party has not yet decided whether it will field a candidate in a seat where they have never been competitive.
Independent now favourite with bookies
Bookmaker odds have changed dramatically since Sportsbet first created a market for the Farrer by-election when Sussan Ley announced she intended to resign on Friday 13 February.
On that day, the Nationals were firm favourites to reclaim the seat they held until their former leader Tim Fischer retired in 2001. The Nats were at $1.87, Liberals at $3.30, independent at $5.50 and One Nation at $7.50.
But since then, Michelle Milthorpe announced she’d run as an independent and Helen Dalton also said she might stand.
On Friday 27 February, independent was at $1.91, the Nationals at $3.40, One Nation at $4.33 while the Liberals had blown out to $7 to retain the ‘safe’ electorate they have held for 25 years.
Sportsbet do not specify the name of the ‘independent’ candidate that is favourite – but will pay out if any independent wins.
Anyone considering having a punt is advised to do so within their means and gamble responsibly.
What happened at the last election?
Sussan Ley received 43 per cent of the primary vote for the Liberals at the 2025 federal election, ahead of Michelle Milthorpe with 20 per cent, Labor with 15 per cent and One Nation with 7 per cent. On two-party preferred votes, Ms Ley beat Ms Milthorpe 56 per cent to 44 per cent, her narrowest margin of victory since she first won the seat in 2001.
A Coalition agreement prevented the Nationals from running against a sitting Liberal MP, but now that Ms Ley has vacated the seat they are free to run.
