Pauline Hanson, flanked by her Farrer candidate David Farley and Barnaby Joyce at the One Nation campaign launch in Albury on the weekend. Photo: Pauline Hanson Facebook.
The first public poll ahead of the much anticipated Farrer by-election has produced a stunning result – with the One Nation Party and independent Michelle Milthorpe comfortably ahead of the Liberal and National parties on expected primary votes.
The data suggests the battle for the once-safe Liberal seat could be the first election race in modern history in which no major party finishes in the top two. It’s also the best chance Pauline Hanson’s party has of winning its first Lower House seat since it formed in 1996.
Think tank The Australia Institute released a poll of 1000 voters in Farrer which asked the question: If this federal by-election were held today, who would receive your first preference vote?
Some 28.7 per cent said One Nation, 23.3 per cent said Ms Milthorpe, 19.1 per cent said Liberal, 5.2 per cent said the Nationals and 3.9 per cent said the Greens.
This points to a likely two-horse race between Ms Milthope and One Nation candidate David Farley, with the final result possibly coming down to whom the Liberal and National parties recommend giving their preferences to on their how-to-vote cards.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has urged the Coalition to put One Nation last, arguing their policies and rhetoric are too extreme, particularly on immigration and multiculturalism.
However, Liberal deputy leader Jane Hume has said she is open to doing a preference deal with the right-wing minor party.
The by-election, to be held on Saturday 9 May, was caused by the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, who comfortably held the seat since 2001.
Former army colonel Brad Robertson will stand for the National Party, but the Liberals are yet to nominate a candidate, which has seen it ridiculed by a satirical website.
“While Farrer is literally the Liberals to lose, if One Nation can’t convert strong polling into parliamentary seats then it will be much harder for them to maintain momentum and voters’ interest,” Dr Richard Denniss, co-CEO of The Australia Institute said.
“While Cathy McGowan and Helen Haines have made [the bordering seat] Indi safe terrain for independents, if Michelle Milthorpe can win the neighbouring electorate, then all of the conservative parties will have some hard thinking to do.”
Michelle Milthorpe campaigning in Griffith this week. Photo: Oliver Jacques.
While voters are divided on issues such as irrigation and immigration, The Australia Institute polling found one area where most agreed.
Some 75 per cent of voters strongly agreed or agreed with the statement: Gas export corporations should pay a flat 25 per cent tax on gas exports.
“Remarkably, given how divisive Australian politics has become, fewer than 10 per cent of Farrer voters oppose the idea,” Dr Denniss said.
“The popularity of taxing gas exports raises a big problem for the Liberals and Nationals. If they aren’t willing to listen to voters and make sure that Australia gets more revenue from gas exports than it does from beer excise, they risk losing even more seats.
“And if they do listen to voters they risk a fight with the multinational gas industry. Picking a side in such a fight won’t be easy for them, but if they keep sitting on the fence it will likely become even more painful.”
