Barnaby Joyce and Pauline Hanson, announcing his defection to One Nation. Photo: Pauline Hanson Facebook.
Following former Liberal leader Sussan Ley’s resignation from Federal Parliament, there will be a by-election in the western NSW seat of Farrer in early May.
And if you’ve been reading political analysts, you’re no doubt well aware of who this is all about – it’s One Nation, right?
You’d certainly think so from the hectares of digital and literal ink spilled following the South Australian state election, where the laser focus was on One Nation’s 20 per cent share of the vote, rather than the thumping two-party preferred result pulled off by Peter Malinauskas for Labor.
It’s less clear whether these pundits know much about Farrer. They probably can point to it on a map, but only because it’s the size of several small European nations combined.
But no need because, as we know, everyone in rural Australia is deeply conservative and only a hair’s breadth away from voting for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation at any given time, right? That certainly seems to be what Barnaby Joyce is hoping for.
Not necessarily. And I write this editorial less as a longtime Canberra journalist and more as a sixth-generation farmer who grew up in Western NSW and is the daughter, wife, sister, cousin and mother of farmers.
Of course, country people tend to be more conservative. And, as journalist (and my neighbour from Harden) Gabrielle Chan has written in her book Rusted Off, the chasm between town and bush is growing steadily for a complex mix of economic and social reasons.
But to accuse regional Australians of reflexive, mindless, populist voting is not only inaccurate, but it’s also downright patronising.
There’s little publicly available polling in Farrer, but results commissioned the Australia Institute think tank seem to indicate that while One Nation’s David Farley is ahead by a nose, independent Michelle Milthorpe is a strong contender on preferences, after coming a solid second to Sussan Ley in the last Federal election.
Indeed, as the venerable Antony Green points out, independents have come second in two of the last three elections in Farrer, with steadily increasing margins.
Farrer includes the vibrant and exceptionally diverse centres of Griffith and Leeton, producing huge harvests of citrus, grapes and other horticultural crops. Without migrant workers, there’s nobody to pick the fruit. Without migrants, there would be no Griffith.
Interestingly, The Australian recently reported that One Nation Farrer candidate David Farley “campaigned to import skilled Indian workers for a Northern Territory abattoir under the 457 visa scheme – a program Pauline Hanson spent years opposing”, and often described by her as a scam.
There are plenty of other regions in the same boat. In Australia’s depopulated rural economies, where workers can be harder to come by than hen’s teeth, there’s less room for exclusionary politics these days than you might think.
And while much has been made of the teal wave in Sydney and Melbourne, it’s worth remembering independents have been elected in the bush for decades.
They’re often socially pragmatic centrists, financially fairly conservative, and overwhelmingly – like Tony Windsor, and NSW state Member for Wagga Dr Joe McGirr and others – deeply connected to their local communities.
The late Peter Andren made Calare in the NSW Central West the second safest seat in Australia, easily winning three terms as an independent.
Rural electorates are geographically big, but population centres are small, and voters therefore often know their MPs personally quite well. Owing nothing to party political masters and everything to their neighbours at home, you can’t blast these local members out with dynamite once voters decide to trust them.
Cathy McGowan won Indi in exactly this way. Sitting Liberal Sophie Mirabella paid so little attention to her constituents that they might as well not have existed, and she was punished heavily for that entitlement.
My suspicion is the message from South Australia is more about the deep mire the Liberals and Nationals have waded into, rather than a regional yearning for reactionary, often racist, politics.
I don’t know who will win in Farrer on 9 May, and neither, I suspect, does anyone else. But if I were a betting woman, I’d suggest it’s worth a flutter on Michelle Milthorpe.
Genevieve Jacobs is the CEO of Hands Across Canberra, the ACT’s community foundation.
Original Article published by Genevieve Jacobs on Region Canberra.
