It’s a tale of two markets right now and experts say only one is driving the current upward momentum. Photos: Lazy_Bear/Picsuite.
It was 2020/21 and a pandemic raged across the world, ravaging the hospitality and tourism industries and forcing businesses and workers to pivot to keep up with ever-shifting rules.
In the John Mooney offices in Wagga, Jacinta Kelly and her colleagues braced themselves for what could be a grim knock-on effect on the property market.
“It was just so unprecedented, we didn’t know what to expect,” she said. “In the end, we didn’t even do the job-keeper scheme — we were too busy.”
Nationally, the property market surged 24.5 per cent, the highest property value growth in more than 30 years.
In Wagga, prices surged 23.5 per cent — the strongest growth since 2003, when the market jumped nearly 32 per cent on the back of strong migration, heavy investment activity and low (but rising) interest rates. That spike followed a 5.2 per cent fall in 2002.
Each surge and drop serves as a reminder of the market’s unpredictable nature.
In fact, a 40-year retrospective on growth in home values from Cotality revealed that Australia’s housing market has a long history of defying conventional wisdom, with periods of extraordinary growth occurring under unexpected conditions.
The data underscored that housing performance was shaped by more than monetary policy alone.
“Sometimes home values surge when you least expect it,” Cotality research director Tim Lawless said.
“In 1988, with interest rates near 15 per cent and rising, Australian home values skyrocketed by 31 per cent. Fast forward to 2021, amid a global pandemic and closed borders, national values jumped almost 25 per cent.”
Nationally, there have only been six periods when home values have fallen. In Wagga, just 10.
Last year (2025) ranked the sixth strongest year over the past four decades for home value growth in the region.
So where does all this leave buyers and sellers?
While nobody can make a definitive call on how the market will behave, some factors provide strong clues.
“Fiscal stimulus, credit availability, migration trends and economic shocks all play a role in shaping outcomes,” Tim said.
“Periods of extreme growth often coincide with broader economic shifts, not just monetary policy.”
For buyers and sellers alike, it’s worth talking to local experts to gain insights into your specific market and how it’s impacted by current trends.
For instance, while there are widespread reports on current growth being fuelled by the recent changes to the federal Home Guarantee Scheme, Jacinta said it’s had little impact on the Wagga market.
“That’s not what’s pushing the market in Wagga. First-home buyers still cannot compete,” she said.
“People are worried this scheme will push prices up, but in our region, there’s too much competition in that range. Even if you’re eligible for the grant, you’re outbid by investors.”
On the other hand, it makes for a great upsizer market.
“If you’re selling and buying in the same market in Wagga, specifically if you can sell for under $700,000, you’re going to achieve an inflated price for your property,” Jacinta said.
“If you’re upsizing into that $800,000 to $900,000 market, you’ll find less competition.”
Original Article published by Dione David on Region Illawarra.
